The "24 to 29-year-old engineer" tweet

  • The viral claim: engineers aged 24–29 will become "the most valuable asset in technology" because they have pre-AI principles and post-AI speed. Dax called BS 55:41.
  • His diagnosis of the genre: it's the classic "person like me has all the advantages, person not like me has all the disadvantages" post. Note the range is 24–29, not 18–25 — because the author falls in it 56:27, 57:34.

Why predictions are mostly psychology

  • Root cause: "we are experiencing a moment of great change, everyone is nervous about what that means for their own position, and a defense mechanism is to confidently assert a future in which you're a winner. That's almost what every single prediction is" 56:27.
  • The pattern always traces down to: my company will succeed, others will fail; my job won't be replaced, everyone else's will 56:51.
  • Dax's alternative: focus on the next day. "I didn't know I was going to be working on this a year ago. I don't know what I'm going to be working on a year from now" 57:16.
  • Young vs. experienced is the eternal trade — energy without experience vs. experience without 20-year-old energy — nothing new about it 57:34.

On the pace of change

  • Industry veterans (Kent Beck, Martin Fowler, Grady Booch) say they've seen shifts like mainframes → microprocessors, but spread over a decade rather than a couple of years — this one is faster 58:17.
  • Dax: outcomes are always counterintuitive — "none of the obvious things ever happen… it's going to be so weird from our point of view now, and make total sense in hindsight. Predicting is a lot harder than people think" 58:38.